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Nathan McRae
Tue, 16 Jun 2020 20:12:30 -0700
last edited: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 22:35:42 -0700
Say you're in the woods and through the wind you think you hear a wolf howling in the distance. You tell your friend and he rushes around the nearest tree, then comes back and says "don't worry, there aren't any wolves behind that tree".
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Nathan McRae
Tue, 16 Jun 2020 20:13:40 -0700
Your posterior fear should be about the same as your prior fear.
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Nathan McRae
Tue, 16 Jun 2020 20:15:58 -0700
last edited: Thu, 18 Jun 2020 21:02:05 -0700
There are many debates where the factuality of the evidence doesn't really matter. The disagreement is between people's priors (unconcerned vs. afraid), as well as their heuristics on the relative scale of the evidence in the space the evidence inhabits (how many trees are in the forest).
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